The current discoveries of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA might have distorted crucial oil projections under extreme U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers seldom come forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear surge on future global oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the opportunities of finding new reserves have the prospective to toss governments' long-lasting planning into mayhem.
Whatever the reality, rising long term international needs seem particular to outstrip production in the next years, particularly given the high and rising costs of developing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will need billions in financial investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.
In such a circumstance, ingredients and substitutes such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by stretching beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing prices drive this innovation to the leading edge, one of the wealthiest possible production areas has actually been completely ignored by investors already - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the region is poised to become a significant player in the production of biofuels if adequate foreign financial investment can be obtained. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is made mainly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is mostly distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is a native plant, Camelina sativa.
Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the shores of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have seen their economies boom since of record-high energy rates, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing producer of natural gas.
Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical seclusion and relatively little hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian neighbors have actually mainly hindered their ability to capitalize increasing international energy demands already. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain largely reliant for their electrical requirements on their Soviet-era hydroelectric infrastructure, but their increased need to produce winter electrical energy has led to autumnal and winter season water discharges, in turn seriously affecting the farming of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
What these 3 downstream countries do have nevertheless is a Soviet-era legacy of farming production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was largely directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, starting in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has actually ended up being a significant producer of wheat. Based upon my discussions with Central Asian government authorities, provided the thirsty demands of cotton monoculture, foreign proposals to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have terrific appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lower level Astana for those sturdy investors willing to wager on the future, specifically as a plant native to the region has actually already shown itself in trials.
Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is bring in increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with numerous European and American business already examining how to produce it in industrial amounts for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historical test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the first Asian provider to try out flying on fuel stemmed from sustainable feedstocks throughout a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the culmination of a 12-month assessment of camelina's operational performance capability and potential business practicality.
As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to suggest it. It has a high oil material low in hydrogenated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of particular interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's significant wheat exporter. Another reward of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce up to 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A heap (1000 kg) of camelina will contain 350 kg of oil, of which pressing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is lost as after processing, the plant's debris can be utilized for livestock silage. Camelina silage has an especially attractive concentration of omega-3 fats that make it an especially great livestock feed candidate that is simply now gaining recognition in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is fast growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and completes well against weeds when an even crop is developed. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be an ideal low-input crop suitable for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."
Camelina, a branch of the mustard household, is native to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a brand-new crop on the scene: historical evidence shows it has been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of 3 millennia to produce both vegetable oil and animal fodder.
Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research, showed a wide variety of outcomes of 330-1,700 pounds of seed per acre, with oil content differing in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been figured out to be in the 6-8 pound per acre range, as the seeds' small size of 400,000 seeds per lb can develop problems in germination to achieve an optimum plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.
Camelina's capacity might allow Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous legacy, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has warped the country's efforts at agrarian reform given that accomplishing self-reliance in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian government determined that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing textile industry. The procedure was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were likewise purchased by Moscow to sow cotton, Uzbekistan in specific was singled out to produce "white gold."
By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually become self-dependent in cotton
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Central Asia's Vast Biofuel Opportunity
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